A Methodology for Probabilistically Estimating Caseload Size and Overlap

This working paper presents three applications of Probabilistic Population Estimation (PPE), a new statistical procedure that provides information on the unduplicated number of people who are involved in more than one institution, program, group, or activity, either concurrently or in sequence. The first is an estimation of the unduplicated number of residents of an entire state who were hospitalized for psychiatric or substance abuse services during a five-year period. The second applies the PPE methodology to construction of a global measure of access in a managed mental health care system. The third uses PPE to evaluate substance abuse treatment programs using incarceration.

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